The Economist: Where the Power Really Lies in Thailand

The Economist has an interesting article on where the power lies in Thailand, and it sure ain't with the People. I had thought that Thailand was done away with military coups, but the coup three years ago really screwed up the country with no sight in end to the problems.

Army officers like to grumble that politics in Thailand, unlike soldiering, is a dirty game. But it is a game that they have rigged to their advantage. After the coup, the liberal 1997 constitution was replaced by a less democratic one. They have secured a bigger budget allocation (see chart), allowing them to give friendly politicians a hand. And a tough new internal-security act was passed with minimal oversight.

This proved handy after Mr Thaksin’s allies won an election in December 2007 and an inept military government was disbanded. Within months, yellow-shirted royalist protesters were back on the streets in Bangkok, refusing to leave until the government did. In the ensuing chaos, it was the army that arguably emerged on top. Urged by yellow-shirts to stage another coup, General Anupong Paochinda, the army chief, demurred. But when he refused to disperse the crowds at Bangkok’s two airports last November, and instead urged the prime minister, Somchai Wongsawat, to resign, the effect was the same.

After the mess it made in power, the army is much happier pulling the strings, says Paul Chambers of Heidelberg University in Germany. It has all the legal tools it needs to keep civilians like Mr Abhisit in line, without the bother of having actually to run the country.

Of course, General Anupong’s reluctance to seize power need not preclude others from trying. Many of the 18 coups since 1932 have turned on factional rivalry within the top military ranks during the autumn shuffle of commands. But General Anupong has promoted his followers and penalised officers suspected of Thaksinite loyalties. He is due to retire next year as head of the army, the most important branch of the armed forces. His anointed successor is his deputy, General Prayuth Chan-ocha, who is young enough to serve until 2014. He is reckoned to be even more conservative than his mentor, and even readier to crack heads to defend national security and the revered monarchy. General Prayuth is likely to play a crucial role during the much-feared succession to the king, Bhumibol Adulyadej, who is 81.

Among Thais, the army commands both respect and suspicion. A recent survey by the Asia Foundation ranked it second behind the judiciary as institutions with integrity (the monarchy was not an option). But only 37% of respondents said it was neutral. Its reputation has improved since May 1992, when troops massacred scores of demonstrators in Bangkok. Never again, came the refrain. Soldiers were spat on in public. But successive civilian governments failed to overhaul the 300,000-strong armed forces. They still have several hundred active generals, many without even a desk. The tally of 36 four-star officers is just behind America’s 41. But America’s army is four times larger—and at war.