Talk about an explosive situation. Not exactly what Thailand needs at this time. The King has been in the hospital for over a month, and despite upbeat reports from the Palace, his age alone indicates he may be ready to move onto the next level. His son has been appointed his heir to the throne, though most Thais dislike the lifestyle of the Crown Prince and would probably prefer one of his sisters to be the queen. Everyone is jockeying for a position near the King and the Crown Prince, but given the volatile political situation in Thailand, anything could happen.
Gulf Daily News has a summary of the situation, though it's cleaned up for public consumption. When will the King or the international or domestic press start to talk about this looming disaster?
People get long jail sentences in Thailand for criticising the royal family, so the Thai media have been silent on the question of what happens after the death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej.
But the king is 81 years old and he has been in hospital for a month now, so there are widespread fears that he is dying. Last week the Bangkok stock market fell by eight per cent in a day on rumours that his health is worse than the palace admits.
Bhumibol has been on the throne for 63 years and he is universally revered. Thailand is three years into the worst political crisis it has seen since it became a more or less democratic country two decades ago, and the king is just about the only unifying and stabilising factor that remains. His death would make matters much worse.
The crisis is the result of democracy. Thailand has become a semi-developed country - average income has risen forty-fold since Bhumibol came to the throne - but most of the population is still rural and quite poor. Their votes used to be bought by powerful local politicians and delivered to whichever urban-based party paid the highest price, but no more.
As the people of the overwhelmingly rural north and north-east acquired more education and sophistication, they started using their votes to back politicians who promised to defend their interests and not just those of the Bangkok-based economic elite. In 2001, they elected a populist politician of humble origins called Thaksin Shinawatra as prime minister.
Thaksin had made a fortune in telecommunications, and he probably couldn't have won the elections if he wasn't rich. But he did govern in the interests of the poor, and he was re-elected with an increased majority in 2005. It was how you would expect a maturing democracy to work, for the poor always outnumber the rich.
But you would also expect a backlash from the traditional ruling elite, and it came in the form of the People's Alliance of Democracy (PAD), a yellow-shirted movement that actually aimed to roll back democracy. By provoking confrontations in the streets with Thaksin's supporters (who took to wearing red shirts), the PAD created a pretext for its allies in the army to seize power in a military coup in 2006. Since then, Thailand has been in permanent crisis.
The PAD's urban, middle-class supporters can control the streets of the capital and even overthrow governments they don't like, but they cannot force the rural majority to abandon its own loyalties. The country is dangerously polarised and politically paralysed - and many Thais believe that only King Bhumibol can hold the country together.
Maybe it's true, although there are suspicions that he actively supported the 2006 coup rather than just acquiescing in it. ( A well-known former journalist, Daranee Charnchoengsilpakul, was recently sentenced to 18 years in prison after she suggested in a public speech that the king had backed the coup.) At any rate, the king's death would greatly deepen the crisis, for his likely successor is not loved.
Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn has led a turbulent personal life, including three marriages. His attitude has probably not been improved by living for 57 years in the shadow of his father. He would be a perfectly serviceable constitutional monarch in normal times, but the Thai people have decided, fairly or unfairly, that they do not like him very much.
Vajiralongkorn is so lacking in the respect that has enabled his father to play a mediating, calming role that there are those who quietly suggest that his sister, Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn, might perform the duties of the monarchy better. It's not impossible. Thai law has been changed to allow women to occupy the throne, and the constitution leaves the final right to designate an heir to the 19-member Privy Council of senior advisors to the king.
They are unlikely to change the succession, but the mere fact that it could happen introduces another element of uncertainty and potential conflict into the equation.
The almost daily reports from the palace on the king's condition are always upbeat, but there have been references to a "lung inflammation," which is a delicate way of saying pneumonia. That is potentially a killer in a man of his age, and the worries of the Thai public are justified. Long live the King!
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